The loss of 6 million acres of corn and soybeans to an historically cold and rainy planting season this year will be felt into autumn 2020 and beyond, said the U.S. government on Thursday. Stockpiles will be drawn down to compensate for short crops; soy slashed by a quarter before the 2020 harvest begins (and we know what Zharkova says about crops from 2020-onward).
This week, the USDA projected the smallest corn crop in four years and the smallest soybean crop in six years, in what many analyst are calling rather optimistic outlooks given the state of the weather and planting progression this year.
And in a bullish nod to wheat, a larger-than-usual volume of the grain will be diverted to livestock feed to offset the downturn in corn production.
The USDA is busy resurveying growers throughout the Farm Belt following June’s absurdly high production forecast for corn. Analysts shrugged off the report that raised the government’s planted acreage estimate to 91.7 million acres, and corn futures are still marching upwards, reaching a 3-week high on Friday.
Traders deemed that USDA June acreage estimate to be far too optimistic for corn and are awaiting the results of the follow-up survey on cold and rain-delayed plantings.
It has been suggested by some that the USDA is simply kicking the bad news can down the road, or hoping on a dramatic turn in weather-fortunes to improve their dire numbers.
The USDA will reveal these new figures in early August.
If it finds significant differences from the data gathered in June, it should alter the outlook for crop production. Either that, or it’ll kick the bad news can on to the next report.
The coldest and wettest Oct-to-May in U.S. history prevented many farmers from sowing and delayed planting for others for so long that yields are expected to suffer due to the shortened growing season.
The U.S. soybean stockpile was forecast to total 1.05 billion bushels, the largest ever, when this year’s harvest begins. However, the “carryover” is now expected to plunge to 795 million bushels, down by 24%, by the time the 2020 crop is mature, again according to the USDA.
The U.S. corn stockpile is expected to fall by 14%, to 2.01 billion bushels.
While cold weather and drought is busy cutting into the wheat crop in Russia, Ukraine (the breadbasket of Europe), and the European Union.
And Australia’s crop is also suffering with drought.
Grain futures will run at some point, but for now, government agencies are doing their upmost to hold them back.
Perhaps the USDA’s first fall harvest report in early August will be the release.
Stay tuned for updates.
Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift